“美联储传声筒”:长期利率预估面临上行风险

格隆汇
2 hours ago
“美联储传声筒”Nick Timiraos表示:两年前,当美联储开始降息时,10位政策制定者认为利率最终会低于3%,而7位则认为利率会高于3%。有两位的预测是准确的,利率为3%。今天,只有一位政策制定者预测“长期”利率会低于3%,而11位认为会高于3%。六位认为利率为3%。尽管人们通常很难对“经济预测摘要”(SEP)中极其遥远年份的预测产生强烈反响(因为这些预测主要具有示意性质,即仅展示通胀回落至2%以及利率向长期中性水平靠拢的情景),但今天公布的2029年预测数据却值得关注:在提交预测的17位决策者中,超过半数认为,若要将通胀率降至2%,利率需维持在3.6%或更高水平(这一水平即本周加息前全年的利率水平)。这凸显出长期利率预估面临上行风险。

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10