摩根士丹利:美联储鹰派加息加剧亚洲股市回调风险

环球市场播报
4 hours ago

  摩根士丹利表示,美联储鹰派加息叠加高油价带来的风险,正加剧对亚洲及新兴市场股市的冲击,未来几周市场再次回调的可能性正在上升。

  包括乔纳森・加纳(Jonathan Garner)在内的策略师在研报中写道:“当前市场已接近我们基准情景目标位,未来几周若出现今年第三次回调,我们并不意外。”

  摩根士丹利重申低配澳大利亚股市。预计日本、韩国与中国台湾股市盈利前景更佳,抗跌性更强。

  “美国经济研究团队目前预期美联储将在 12 月和次年 3 月再加息两次,每次 25 个基点,联邦基金利率终端目标在 2027 年一季度达到 4.25%-4.5%。”

  美元贸易加权指数自 7 月下旬以来首次回升至 100 上方,“从金融条件与汇兑层面来看,这对大多数亚洲新兴市场而言属于明显利空。”

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