金吾财讯 | 华泰证券研报称，北京时间9月17日（周四）凌晨美联储公布9月议息会议决定，政策利率如期上调25bp至3.75-4.00%，点阵图和经济预测（SEP）偏鹰派导致市场加息预期升温；沃什延续了Jackson Hole会议以来的鹰派立场，不提供前瞻指引。往前看，联储9月加息落地，12月可能是下一次加息实质博弈期，而联储是否开启加息周期仍需要更多数据与官员表态来判断。当前市场定价联储10月加息概率超过50%，但该机构认为，财政脉冲下降、油价对居民消费侵蚀加大以及金融条件收紧，就业和通胀数据在未来1-2个月或有所降温，联储10月加息的必要性下降，预计12月再次加息为基准情形，而2027年联储的加息路径取决于后续经济数据表现，特别是就业市场是否将持续改善，进而推动工资增速回升，以及通胀的走势。风险提示：联储公信力超预期走弱，就业和通胀数据超预期升温。
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