瑞银:维持美联储12月再加息25个基点预测 相关风险已明显偏向上行

智通财经
2 hours ago

智通财经APP获悉,瑞银投资银行研究部认为,美联储主席沃什(Kevin Warsh)于9月联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会后记者会释出的信号显示,美国货币政策决策框架正出现明显转变。美联储一致决定加息25个基点,将联邦基金利率目标区间上调至3.75%至4%;最新点阵图显示,官员预期年内仍有一次加息,并于2027年维持利率于4.1%水平。瑞银维持12月再加息25个基点的预测,但认为相关风险已明显偏向上行。

瑞银美国首席经济学家 Jonathan Pingle 指出:“总括而言,未来4年的FOMC反应函数,或较过去40年任何时期都更为鹰派。”

Jonathan Pingle指出,沃什多次强调当前金融环境并不具限制性,并将本次加息形容为进一步移除部分宽松政策。瑞银认为,其言论反映美联储较以往更重视金融环境、能源价格及地缘政治因素对通胀的影响,同时对实现价格稳定所需利率水平有重新评估,并重申以更及时的方式推动通胀回到2%目标的决心。

该行称,沃什展现出较近年美联储主席更重视金融环境及通胀风险的政策取向。

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