Financial Services Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
6 hours ago

The latest Market Talks covering Financial Services. Exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

0552 GMT - The Federal Reserve had no choice but to give the market a hike or risk a much bigger bond market selloff, which is shown in the 12-0 vote, Laffer Tengler Investments' Byron Anderson says in a note. "The Fed is trying to calm the bond market rather than signaling a hiking cycle," the head of fixed income says. The market narrative is on a collision course with the Fed from here on out, which means more volatility, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0507 GMT - The bigger question after the Federal Reserve's 25bp rate increase Wednesday is whether the move will be "one and done" or mark the beginning of another tightening cycle, TruStage chief economist Steve Rick says. "Higher oil prices stemming from continued conflict in the Middle East could keep inflation elevated, but monetary policy works with long and variable lags, and additional increases would put more pressure on consumers and businesses already facing elevated borrowing costs," he says. The Fed should give the increase time to take effect before determining how much additional restraint is necessary, Rick says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0506 GMT - Malaysian banks could face weaker fixed-income securities portfolio valuations in 3Q as local bond yields remain elevated following the U.S. rate hike, but the impact is expected to ease in 4Q,Kenanga Investment Bank analyst Peter Kong and his team say in a note. Malayan Banking, Hong Leong Bank and Alliance Bank Malaysia are viewed as relatively less exposed to bond-market swings. "This is a short term view," they say. Fundamentally, banks with good control of funding costs are expected to be able to tap a healthy loan growth pipeline, supporting their preference for Malayan Banking and Hong Leong Bank. Kenanga expects Bank Negara's policy rate to remain unchanged for now.(yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0451 GMT - Westpac's belief in the support that artificial intelligence offers the Australian bank represents one view of the future: Jefferies analysts have another. The analysts acknowledge the argument that incumbent banks should be able to harness new tech to streamline processes, redesign value chains, improve controls, and speed up decision making. "If well executed and appropriately funded, owners and customers will share in the returns of this opportunity," they write in a note. However, they also see a scenario in which bots disrupt banks' engagement with customers, scanning for products and executing transactions. "A bank customer may never again open their bank app, contact a call centre, or visit a branch," the Jarden analysts warn. Jarden keeps a sell rating on the stock and target price of 31.00 Australian dollars. Shares are up 1.5% at A$34.955. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0408 GMT - Netwealth's acquisition of workflow and automation platform Paradino looks strategically sensible to Jarden analysts, who reckon it will strengthen the wealth manager's prospects with advisers over the medium term. With an unchanged neutral rating on the Australia-listed stock, the analysts tell clients in a note that the platform productivity benefits touted by Netwealth should allow advisers to take on more clients and drive stronger inflows. Less positively, they say they can't tell whether the acquisition materially moves Netwealth ahead of peers or how sustainable the offering will be in the face of artificial-intelligence-driven competition. Jarden trims its target price 1.0% to 24.20 Australian dollars. Shares are down 1.3% at A$18.71. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0251 GMT - Markets risk overinterpreting the tone of Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's press conference after its meeting, says BlackRock Investment Institute's Jean Boivin in a note. The Fed helped reestablish the new chairman's credibility with its decision to hike rates, Boivin says. He notes the emphasis on the strength of the U.S. economy was a notable feature of the post-decision press conference, which markets interpreted as hawkish. The head of the BlackRock Investment Institute notes--against the backdrop of stronger economic growth--the rate hike may not be bad news for risk assets. "We think it is important to distinguish the need to safeguard the Fed's credibility from the start of a sustained hiking cycle," says Boivin. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

0216 GMT - If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates as markets project--more than three hikes by the middle of next year--rate differentials between the U.S. and Japan will narrow little under the current policy path priced in for the Bank of Japan, says Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities strategist Keisuke Tsuruta. The wide rate gap has been a major driver of the yen's weakness. Investors are likely to stay sensitive to the possibility of faster BOJ tightening, given that some board members have pointed to global monetary shifts when considering Japan's own policy, he says. The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds was last down 0.5 bp at 2.990%. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)

0159 GMT - Morgan Stanley analysts remain watchful for any signs of deteriorating credit quality across construction and property following a large Sydney developer's entry into a form of bankruptcy protection. MS analysts tell clients in a note that Bathla's voluntary administration poses limited direct risk to Australia's major banks, but warn that second-order impacts could emerge through stress to small and medium-size enterprises, tighter funding conditions, and weaker property valuations. History shows credit quality can deteriorate quickly, they add. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0148 GMT - Fixed mortgage interest rates in Australia are rising ahead of the central bank's policy meeting at the end of the month. Markets expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise the official cash rate by 25 basis points. The likely hike comes as house prices are in a sharp retreat. After weeks of inactivity, fixed rates have now started to move, and they're on the way up, not down, Canstar says. NAB and ANZ on Thursday raised their fixed rates by up to 20 basis points. This takes the number of lenders hiking fixed rates in the month of September to nine. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)

1734 GMT - In California, sales of existing, single-family homes and the statewide median home price both rose in August, according to the California Association of Realtors. Sales last month were up 2.4% from July and up 1.4% from August 2025. The statewide median home price was $901,420, a rise of 1.6% from the prior month and up from the $900,620 figure recorded in August of last year. Buyers remained engaged during the month, "but the recent rise in mortgage rates and continued economic uncertainty could create some headwinds as we move into the fall," says C.A.R. President Tamara Suminski. (stephen.nakrosis@wsj.com)

1445 GMT - Qatar leads most major Gulf stocks lower, with the QE Index falling 1.4%, while Abu Dhabi's benchmark index declines 0.2% and the Dubai Financial Market General Index bucks the trend, rising 0.7%. The divergence across Gulf equities largely reflects sector composition, positioning and market-specific exposures, says Mazen Abou Ismail, head of trading desk at FFA Private Bank Dubai. Qatar's financial-heavy market makes it particularly sensitive to pressure on banks and broader geopolitical risk, while Dubai is benefiting from more diversified corporate exposure. Abu Dhabi remains relatively defensive, though its banks are facing some pressure, he says. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

1430 GMT - In August, the typical renter paid $1,066 less per month than the typical home buyer, according to Zillow. Rent was $1,948 while the typical mortgage payment plus taxes and insurance totaled $3,014--a gap that has grown as mortgage costs have risen faster than rents. For renters who can set that difference aside, it could translate into meaningful long-term savings. At $1,066 a month, renters save $12,792 a year over owning a home, and those who invest it at the rate of the 10-year Treasury yield earn an additional $322 in the first year alone. Assuming rents and home buying costs remain stable, that could turn into a cumulative total of $72,000 after five years--real wealth built without the hidden costs of homeownership like closing costs, maintenance and more.

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