Why Falling EV Deliveries Aren’t a Problem for Tesla Stock

Dow Jones
1 hour ago

Tesla stock was up again early Thursday, despite some new concern over EV deliveries.

Shares of the electric vehicle and AI company were up 3.9% at $372.05, while S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 1% and 0.6%, respectively.

The move comes after shares gained 0.4% on Wednesday, overcoming a 0.5% drop for the S&P 500 following the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise short-term interest rates.

The gain also came despite some caution from Goldman Sachs about third-quarter EV deliveries. Analyst Mark Delaney wrote that Tesla’s EV sales are tracking below the 456,000 consensus estimate, based on monthly and weekly sales data points he gathers. Delaney expects deliveries of closer to 435,000 vehicles.

He rates Tesla stock Hold and has a $360 price target for shares.

Estimates coming in ahead of a delivery report aren’t all that unusual for Tesla. Still, selling EVs has been a struggle this year. Tesla delivered almost 500,000 vehicles in the third quarter of 2025. That number was boosted by the September 2025 expiration of the $7,500 federal EV purchase tax credit. Tesla’s EV sales dipped to 418,000 units in the fourth quarter.

Overall, Tesla is expected to sell about 1.8 million vehicles in 2026, up from about 1.6 million in 2025, reversing two consecutive years of delivery declines.

Growth is good, but EV sales just haven’t developed as expected. Estimates for 2026 Tesla deliveries peaked at about 4.9 million vehicles in March 2022.

Tesla stock was trading around $300 back then. It’s closer to $360 now. Investors just aren’t that concerned with EV sales anymore. They are concerned with AI applications such as robo-taxis and robots, believing those businesses will generate billions in profits down the road.

To be sure, car sales still matter. EVs are Tesla’s biggest business and help fund its AI ambitions.

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