当地时间9月16日,美联储召开2026年9月FOMC会议,将联邦基金利率的目标区间上调至3.75%-4.00%。对此,东

智通财经
3 hours ago
当地时间9月16日,美联储召开2026年9月FOMC会议,将联邦基金利率的目标区间上调至3.75%-4.00%。对此,东海证券分析师刘思佳表示,美联储加息25bp符合市场预期,会前市场定价加息的概率已超90%,除了兑现了杰克逊霍尔会议以来的鹰派表态,也有助于重塑美联储独立性的形象,降低长端美债收益率期限溢价的上行风险。当前CME显示10月加息概率在5成左右,年内再加息一次概率接近9成左右,与点阵图显示的预期接近。不过,若非供给因素影响下油价上行带来的通胀扩散担忧,美国K型分化的经济现状,以及劳动力市场供需双降下的弱平衡,均不支持美联储开启周期性的连续加息。沃什也表示,当前金融条件并非限制性,本次加息是撤除一部分宽松。是否开启周期性连续加息,仍存不确定性。

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