The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1423 ET - The Fed hikes as expected, but the unanimous decision comes as a surprise "considering that lack of consensus seemed to be the theme with FOMC officials in the last few meetings," Monex USA's Juan Perez writes. An increase in the WSJ Dollar Index gains traction and the gauge is up 0.3%. "Naturally, the U.S. Dollar is gaining some momentum, although the decision was very much priced-in," Perez says. He expects markets to get more volatile during Chairman Warsh's press conference. The dollar strengthens 0.3% against the yen and 0.4% versus the euro. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1419 ET - A relatively muted reaction in the stock market from the Fed's move to hike rates by 1/4 percentage point to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. The Fed statement says "Inflation remains elevated. Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal. The Committee will deliver price stability." The DJIA is flat at 52,082, the S&P 500 is up 0.3% to 7611 and the Nasdaq rises 0.7% to 26,168, all little changed from where they were prior to the Fed decision. (patrick.sheridan@wsj.com)

1416 ET - The summary of economic projections showed that inflation won't cool to the Fed's 2% target until 2029. Officials projected that PCE inflation will be 3.7% in 2026, higher than the 3.6% in the June projection. In June, committee officials predicted PCE inflation would be 2.0% in 2028, that number was changed to 2.1%, slightly above target. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

1408 ET - Treasury yields edge higher as the Fed raises interest rates for the first time since 2023 and sends hawkish signals. The central bank hikes by a quarter of a percent, as widely expected, indicating it is willing to battle sticky inflation. "The Committee will deliver price stability," policymakers say in the post-meeting statement. Chairman Warsh's Q&A will be key for markets to gauge his commitment to cooling price increases. The 10-year rises to 4.955% from 4.945% ahead of the rate announcement, while the two-year increases to 4.646% from 4.606%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1404 ET - In its July policy statement, the Fed wrote that elevated inflation was "in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy." A Fed confident that inflation was driven entirely by supply shocks can justify watching and waiting for price increases to cool. But the Fed's September statement omits that language, saying only that "inflation remains elevated." The language change helps explain one possible rationale for today's hike: a sense that inflation's underlying causes might be broader than previously assumed. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)

1402 ET - As he did in June, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh refrained from submitting a dot to the Fed's forward-looking September dot plot. But the other 18 dots for 2026 tell a hawkish tale. All but two of those officials think that today's rate increase won't be the last. Twelve officials see one more hike by the end of the year, and four officials see two more. So for the vast majority of Fed officials, the going assumption is that today's rate hike isn't a one-and-done affair. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)

1351 ET - Canada's housing market stalled in August after five straight months of gains, with resales dipping 0.7% on-month to return to May levels. Royal Bank economist Rachel Battaglia notes the pullback coincided with an escalation in trade tensions, which looks to have rattled buyer confidence while encouraging more sellers to list. Battaglia says it appears to be more of a pause than an inflection point, and stabilization is expected in the back half of 2026 and into 2027 as households navigate tariff headwinds and sentiment recovers. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

1342 ET - Canada's ambition to expand non-U.S. exports relies heavily on sector-specific growth opportunities, according to CIBC's Chief Economist Avery Shenfeld. While opportunities exist in machinery, mining and aircraft, Shenfeld notes that major shifts like LNG exports face longer timelines. "There are longer term aspirations to get Canadian LNG to Europe... but a lot of infrastructure would have to come into place, over several years, to do that," he says. Beyond energy, Shenfeld notes that Canadian defence sector is ripe for export, as well as nuclear technology and uranium. In the latter, however, he cautions that it will "depend on the EU's receptiveness to nuclear power." While U.S. tariffs may force Canadian exporters to look elswhere, building the physical and industrial capacity to capture them remains a gradual process. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

1341 ET - Bitcoin's decline after the crypto-friendly Clarity Act's defeat in Congress has been relatively shallow, analysts at Glassnode say in a report. "Given the news, the fall is small," they say. It appears that new buyers have gone quiet, cutting off the flow of money that had been driving up Bitcoin in the last month, but holders aren't rushing to sell either, they say. Coins are being taken off of exchanges, a move that happens when traders aren't looking to sell their holdings, the analysts say. There is also a wall of "buy" orders sitting within 10% of the current price, which would be triggered if the price drops further and prevent further drawdowns, they say. (dean.seal@wsj.com)

1334 ET - In California, sales of existing, single-family homes and the statewide median home price both rose in August, according to the California Association of Realtors. Sales last month were up 2.4% from July and up 1.4% from August 2025. The statewide median home price was $901,420, a rise of 1.6% from the prior month and up from the $900,620 figure recorded in August of last year. Buyers remained engaged during the month, "but the recent rise in mortgage rates and continued economic uncertainty could create some headwinds as we move into the fall," says C.A.R. President Tamara Suminski. (stephen.nakrosis@wsj.com)

1323 ET - An expected Fed hike is more likely to solidify the central bank's independence from politics than to significantly curb inflation, Diamond Hill's Henry Song says. "I'm still trying to work out whether Chairman Warsh wants to be going head-to-head with the president this early in his tenure." Song will be watching for indications of whether a hike would be a one-off or the beginning of a cycle. He says a hold could be justified by macro indicators, but it could be interpreted as Warsh bending under political pressure, in which case long-term yields would rise. Futures markets price 93% odds of a hike, according to CME. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1251 ET - The crypto-friendly Clarity Act is officially dead in Congress after falling short yesterday on a vote to push the bill to a floor debate, StoneX analyst Mark Palmer says in a note. That means the uncertainty that has lingered over much of the crypto space isn't going away, he says. Altcoins and decentralized finance protocols, which got hit the hardest under the previous SEC administration, are going to be impacted by the bill's defeat the most, Palmer says. But that doesn't mean the industry's growth will grind to a halt, he says. The work that Congress didn't finish now falls to the SEC and CFTC to sort out, which they have been preparing for, Palmer says.