The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1151 ET - Soybean futures are modestly lower after testing recent highs overnight. "The uptrend is in place, but the market is back to being overbought," Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives says in a note. Near-term price movement is tricky with a record net long held by funds, President Trump's planned meeting with China's Xi Jinping that could provide market-moving headlines, and supply that will hit the market soon with the U.S. harvest picking up, "Whether the bean market can trade significantly higher from here will likely depend on South American production prospects, which right now the market is pricing in the smallest increase in production that we've seen in several years." CBOT soybeans are off 0.2%. Corn is down 0.8% and wheat is off 0.2%.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0935 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are higher for a third session with warmer-for-longer weather keeping up power-sector demand. September is poised for record heat, although "seasonality will remain a dominant force over the next three weeks" and power-sector consumption could fall by 6.1 Bcf/d between now and the end of the month, Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a report. "A scorching mid-September may enhance the seasonal cliff in power sector gas burns ahead." Nymex natural gas is up 1.2% at $2.954/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0919 ET - Oil futures give back some ground after rising to their highest level since May on wider threats to shipping and energy facilities in the Middle East. "With both shipping routes and export infrastructure increasingly exposed to the broader regional conflict, even temporary disruptions can sustain a meaningful geopolitical premium in crude prices," Francesco Martoccia of Citi Research says in a note. Citi expects the escalation to be bullish for oil and products before an eventual Strait of Hormuz reopening in 4Q supported by regional diplomacy, he says. "Yet, recent developments highlight that the path toward de-escalation is unlikely to be linear." WTI is off 1.9% at $103.84 a barrel and Brent is down 1.1% at $107.51. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0537 ET - Investors' attention is on the U.S. Federal Reserve interest-rate decision due at 1800 GMT, where a rate increase is widely expected. However, traders will also pay attention to the Fed's communication and policymakers' commitment to tackling inflation over the coming months, Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly says in a note. "The broader reaction will be clearest in the dollar, gold and equities, where investors will quickly signal whether they see the Fed as regaining control or simply chasing a market that has already moved ahead of it," he says. Ten-year U.S. Treasurys rare last steady at 4.996%, having hit a 19-year high of 5.041% this week, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0405 ET - Copper prices gain on better-than-expected economic data in China. Three-month LME prices are 0.8% higher at $14,114 a metric ton after the value of Chinese exports was boosted by higher prices for technology products, ANZ analysts write. This led to a rise in industrial production growth that overshadowed weak domestic demand, they add. Meanwhile, an unexpected influx of the metal into LME warehouses also failed to dent sentiment, the analysts say. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0336 ET - London's miners rise in opening trade Wednesday as oil prices fall and commodities gain. Oil prices slip as immediate supply concerns are eased by an unexpected jump in U.S. inventories. Miners are some of the world's largest consumers of diesel. Gold prices also rebound 1% on easing oil prices and a fall in Treasury yields. Silver is up 2.3% while three-month LME copper futures are 0.8% higher. Anglo American gains 1.8% while BHP's London shares rise 1.4%. Copper miner Antofagasta is nearly 3% higher while silver and gold miner Fresnillo trades up 3.1%, and peer Endeavour Mining moves 2.6% higher. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0324 ET - Gold rises as oil prices and Treasury yields ease ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest-rate announcement due later Wednesday. The slight fall in oil prices has helped allay some energy-driven inflation concerns but not enough to quell expectations the Fed will hike rates. Noninterest-yielding gold also got a boost as 10-year and two-year Treasury yields edged lower. "The Fed's guidance will be critical for gold, with a more hawkish signal likely to sustain pressure through higher yields, while a less aggressive tightening path could allow gold to regain support from geopolitical uncertainty and portfolio-hedging demand," MUFG's Soojin Kim writes. New York gold futures rise 0.8% to $4,366.40 a troy ounce. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0125 ET - Nippon Steel's plan to build an electric arc furnace at its Slovakian plant is a step forward in its efforts to lower carbon dioxide emissions. The Japanese company is investing about 900 million euros at its Slovakian operating unit to build an electric arc furnace and an air separation unit. The Slovakian unit is the Japanese company's biggest production hub in Europe. The new furnace would have an annual production capacity of about 1.6 million tons. While blast furnaces use coal-based fuel and are a major source of industrial CO2 emissions, electric arc furnaces melt recycled steel, resulting in lower carbon emissions. Nippon Steel aims to lower CO2 emissions by 30% in 2030, compared with 2013 levels. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)
0116 ET - The market underappreciates Newmont's recent deal with Barrick on its Fourmile project, according to UBS. Newmont has performed broadly in line with senior gold peers--excluding Barrick--since the deal, despite a significant improvement in visibility on cash returns and implied growth in gold equivalent ounces per share, the bank says. "A potential large cash payment from NEM to Barrick to equalize the ownership of [Barrick's] Fourmile project in the Nevada JV had been the key overhang for NEM's investment case," says UBS. It has a buy rating on Newmont's Australian shares, with a price target of 210.00 Australian dollars. The stock is up 2.6% at A$175.20. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
2346 ET - Agricultural commodity exporters could emerge as some of the biggest beneficiaries of a likely strong El Nino this year, says Alexandra Symeonidi at William Blair. "Thailand and Pakistan could gain from higher rice prices, which have historically followed strong El Nino episodes," she says in a report. Current forecasts point to below-average rainfall across Southeast Asia. A weaker monsoon could weigh on India, which depends heavily on it to support agricultural production. That could reduce India's agricultural output, accelerate food inflation and weigh on growth, while constrained export capacity offers little offset, she says. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)
2238 ET - Copper rises in Asian trade. Traders are focusing on the Fed's policy decision due later Wednesday, which could lead to a slight decrease in trading activity, Baocheng Futures analysts say in a note. A Fed rate hike is almost a certainty, potentially resulting in a stronger dollar, they note. A stronger greenback weakens the appeal of dollar-denominated commodities such as copper. The three-month copper futures contract on the London Metal Exchange is up 0.2% at $14,115.50 a metric ton.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)
2154 ET - Iron ore prices are lower in early Asian trade, weighed by high supply and weakening steel demand, Citic Futures analysts write in a note. Shipments and arrivals remain elevated and inventories held up at congested ports have edged higher. Freely negotiated terms for long-term contracts with major Australian miners have also softened. While elevated freight rates could provide some support to prices, iron ore is likely to remain rangebound in the near term. Risks to the downside also include a faster decline in hot-metal output or tighter production controls, they say. The most actively traded January iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is 0.35% lower at CNY705.5 a ton.