Market Talks covering the impact of U.S. Politics and White House policies on companies and markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1341 ET - Bitcoin's decline after the crypto-friendly Clarity Act's defeat in Congress has been relatively shallow, analysts at Glassnode say in a report. "Given the news, the fall is small," they say. It appears that new buyers have gone quiet, cutting off the flow of money that had been driving up Bitcoin in the last month, but holders aren't rushing to sell either, they say. Coins are being taken off of exchanges, a move that happens when traders aren't looking to sell their holdings, the analysts say. There is also a wall of "buy" orders sitting within 10% of the current price, which would be triggered if the price drops further and prevent further drawdowns, they say. (dean.seal@wsj.com)

1251 ET - The crypto-friendly Clarity Act is officially dead in Congress after falling short yesterday on a vote to push the bill to a floor debate, StoneX analyst Mark Palmer says in a note. That means the uncertainty that has lingered over much of the crypto space isn't going away, he says. Altcoins and decentralized finance protocols, which got hit the hardest under the previous SEC administration, are going to be impacted by the bill's defeat the most, Palmer says. But that doesn't mean the industry's growth will grind to a halt, he says. The work that Congress didn't finish now falls to the SEC and CFTC to sort out, which they have been preparing for, Palmer says. (dean.seal@wsj.com)

1240 ET - The SEC isn't shying away from crypto regulation, even after the failure of a key bill that would have set the first comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets. "With or without legislation, we will act decisively within the SEC's statutory authority to deliver certainty for American investors and for the entrepreneurs shaping our technological future," SEC Chair Paul Atkins says in a post to X. The Clarity Act, which would have helped usher digital assets into the mainstream financial system, fell short of the votes required to advance in Congress in a Tuesday vote. (kelly.cloonan@wsj.com)

1151 ET - Soybean futures are modestly lower after testing recent highs overnight. "The uptrend is in place, but the market is back to being overbought," Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives says in a note. Near-term price movement is tricky with a record net long held by funds, President Trump's planned meeting with China's Xi Jinping that could provide market-moving headlines, and supply that will hit the market soon with the U.S. harvest picking up, "Whether the bean market can trade significantly higher from here will likely depend on South American production prospects, which right now the market is pricing in the smallest increase in production that we've seen in several years." CBOT soybeans are off 0.2%. Corn is down 0.8% and wheat is off 0.2%.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0947 ET - EC President Ursula von der Leyen's plan for Canada to become an associate member of the EU confirms recent WSJ reporting. But, Bank of Nova Scotia economist Derek Holt is tamping-down any excitement over this development. "We have no clear idea what that means," Holt tells clients in a note. He adds the EU's 27 members would have to be onside. That is a daunting task, with Holt noting that at least 10 European parliaments, such as France and Ireland, have yet to ratify the EU-Canada trade pact negotiated last decade. Holt predicts that "President Trump will have become history" by the time the EU and Canada might figure out what this associate membership looks like. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

0925 ET - The stakes of closer EU ties could be significant for Canada, says Claus Vistesen at Pantheon Macroeconomics. Preferential access to the EU could come with the trade-off of having to align more closely with European regulations, he says. "The EU is a rule setter. The cost of that preferential access isn't just going to be tariff-free." Realigning the way Canada does business could also generate further friction with the U.S., its closest trading partner, Vistesen says. "No matter what happens, you're still going to be trading a fraction with Europe of what you're trading with America, just because of the gravity, the proximity," Vistesen says, adding that there could be considerable backlash in Canada to a close free-trade agreement with the EU. (don.forbes@wsj.com)

0847 ET - The European Union's proposition to make Canada the bloc's first associate member looks positive for the region's spirits sector, an industry group says. "We were pleased to see Ursula von der Leyen underline the importance of the EU extending its strong, strategic trading partnerships in her speech," trade director Pauline Bastidon at SpiritsEurope says. As a highly export-driven sector, furthering open trade is crucial, Bastidon says. "We view closer ties with Canada positively and will be watching with interest as this relationship develops," she adds. (andrea.figueras@wsj.com)

0830 ET - The economic benefits for Europe of a trade deal with Canada would be relatively small, says Claus Vistesen at Pantheon Macroeconomics. "For Europe, it's geopolitics," he says, citing the rupture between the continent and the U.S. as a major driving force behind negotiations. The move follows on from Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's push for the so-called "middle powers" to stand together. "Europe can't rely on America anymore, so it's going out and saying: 'Look, you chose this path. We're choosing another.' There's a natural sense that the EU and Canada can team up here." But economically, the move isn't likely to be groundbreaking for Europe. "It's a fairly small deal. If Europe loses export shares in the U.S. because of high tariffs, it's very unlikely that they will be able to recuperate those shares in free trade with Canada." (don.forbes@wsj.com)

0754 ET - A proposal by the EU to make Canada the bloc's first associate member reflects an attempt to revive long-dormant hopes for a transatlantic trade partnership, says Claus Vistesen at Pantheon Macroeconomics. After talks between the EU and U.S. to implement the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership effectively died following Donald Trump's victory in the 2016 election, the new Canada initiative shows Europe attempting to revive this vision with individual North American states, Vistesen says. "Now, with the North American Free Trade Agreement up in the air, there's a way for Europe to start to try to pick off deals," he says. And the maneuver might not stop in Ottawa. "I wouldn't be surprised if Europe and Mexico try to do something next." (don.forbes@wsj.com)

0727 ET - Cryptocurrency companies are facing a more volatile regulatory environment as a result of the Clarity Act's failure to pass a procedural Senate vote, Bitget Chief Executive Gracy Chen says. The crypto-friendly legislation fell 11 votes short of progressing through the upper house Tuesday. Though the Securities and Exchange Commission is moving to establish market structure rules regulating crypto exchanges, decisions by government agencies are vulnerable to administration changes, Chen says. "Building against rules that could change under a future administration is a very different investment decision from building against legislation," Chen says. "Firms will still invest in the U.S., but will do it more cautiously." Coinbase and Robinhood rise around 0.5% premarket, while Hyperliquid Strategies adds 1% after shares in the exchanges fell sharply Tuesday. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)

0207 ET - The U.S. dollar trades in a tight range in Asia ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision. Interest‑rate markets imply roughly a 90% probability of a 0.25 percentage point increase to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. Most U.S. economists expect a 0.25 percentage point increase, although a few expect a 0.50 percentage point increase. Fed Chair Warsh will need to match his tough rhetoric on bringing down inflation with policy action or risk undermining his credibility about controlling inflation, says Joe Capurso, economist at CBA. In the event the Fed does not increase rates, expect a steep fall of 1% or more in the U.S. dollar, he adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)

2104 ET - RBC's positive view on South32 is reaffirmed by a business update and strategy presentation that highlights the miner's rising exposure to base metals, planned production growth and simplified operating model. "Historically some perceived S32 as overly complicated with too many commodities and assets in different countries," says RBC. The stock was weighed by relatively short mine lives and low margins, as well as significant rehabilitation needs and high emissions intensity. "We believe the recently agreed aluminum transaction and S32's increasing earnings contribution from base metals driven by Hermosa, Sierra Gorda and Cannington life extension significantly transforms S32 and warrants a higher valuation multiple," RBC says. The broker reiterates its outperform rating and A$5.50/share price target on South32. The stock is up 1.2% at A$4.92.