Mortgage Rates Hit 6.95% in Biggest Weekly Jump Since April 2025. Don't Expect a Big Reversal Soon.

Dow Jones
Yesterday

Mortgage rates this week rose to just under 7% in their greatest one-week gain since April 2025, according to one closely watched weekly average.

Freddie Mac's average 30-year fixed mortgage rate during the week ended Sept. 16 was 6.95%, up from 6.76% one week prior. Other gauges, such as those published by Mortgage News Daily and Bankrate, have surpassed 7%.

The rise in mortgage rates has weighed on real estate stocks. The iShares U.S. Home Construction exchange-traded fund is down 0.9% this week, on track for its sixth straight down week, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Mortgage rates at, or even above, 7% are far from unheard of, as anyone who bought a house in the 1970s, '80s, or '90s knows. But they're a shock right now for a few reasons.

For one, any big change in mortgage rates forces house hunters who haven't locked in financing to reconsider their budget. Taking this week's rate and last week's rate at face value, the prospective borrower of a $400,000 home loan is now looking at paying about $50 more every month than they would have had they locked in their loan just last week. A would-be buyer who put a pin in their search before taking vacation in early August is looking at a $77 monthly increase, all things equal.

It's also a high mortgage rate for those who first entered the market in the decade that followed the 2008-09 financial crisis, when mortgage rates averaged about 4%-or even during the pandemic's sub-3% historic lows. This week's Freddie Mac rate is the highest since January 2025, according to historic data.

Additionally, the gain comes at a time when buying a home eats up a greater chunk of income than the 30% typically considered affordable. In July, the most recent month for which data is available, housing costs would eat of 44% of the median household's income, according to calculations published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

With the 10-year Treasury yield, a barometer for mortgage rate movements, hovering just below 5%, buyers shouldn't plan on a reversal any time soon. "Expect 7% as the new normal," Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors' chief economist, said in a Wednesday statement after telling Barron's Tuesday that lower mortgage rates are "off the table."

So, what's a buyer to do? Buyers with the cash or patience to do so might actually find a good deal as the market cools. Otherwise, it doesn't hurt to keep an eye on economic releases, such as jobs and inflation data, that influence the course of the 10-year Treasury yield.

 

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