中信建投分析师曾羽:沃什首次加息后撤回宽松,美债熊平

智通财经
Yesterday
【中信建投分析师曾羽:沃什首次加息后撤回宽松,美债熊平】中信建投分析师曾羽认为,美联储9月会议全票加息25bp,加息已被市场充分定价,会议的关键信息在于:声明删去通胀的能源供给冲击归因,本次删除与沃什反复强调的通胀太高、持续太久相呼应,表明委员会已不再将通胀视为可短期消化的供给冲击。点阵图与经济预测同步上修,年内再加一次成为中位数判断,通胀回到2%目标的时点进一步推迟;沃什表示委员会对通胀正朝目标移动缺乏信心,并延续不提供前瞻指引的沟通风格。市场呈现典型熊平:短端定价更高的政策利率路径、跳升破位,长端交易的是联储控通胀的能力,上行相对温和。往后看,今年再加一次为基准情形;1999年以来美联储从未只加一次,但本轮起点已具限制性、累计空间有限,明年的路径重度依赖油价与通胀数据。

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10