金吾财讯 | 据外媒报道，市场普遍预计英国央行（BOE）将在当地时间周四的利率决议中选择按兵不动，维持基准利率在3.75%的水平。近期受能源及燃油成本激增影响，英国8月整体CPI同比上升至3.1%，创下五个月新高。然而，剔除波动项的核心通胀率连续第四个月保持在2.6%的温和水平。荷兰国际集团（ING）分析师指出，英国当前约3.75%的利率水平已深处紧缩区间，因此英国央行无需像美联储或欧洲央行那样展现出更强的鹰派姿态。北京时间周四凌晨，美联储已开启自2023年以来的首次25个基点加息，欧洲央行亦宣布了年内的第二次加息，日本央行也有跟进上调贷款利率的预期。英国央行此番若按兵不动，将凸显全球主要央行政策路径的分化。目前，债市交易员正密切关注英国央行缩减资产负债表（QT）的最新动向。面对全球政府债券抛售潮及20年期与30年期金边债券收益率逼近6%的压力，市场预计英国央行或将暂停出售上述长端金边债券，以平抑市场剧烈波动。
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