Moderna stock abruptly rallied on Thursday, pacing toward its best session since a positive update for its experimental cancer vaccine sent shares skyrocketing.
Look to no other explanation than a momentum trade. Shares have risen 17% over the past month, handily beating the S&P 500 and suggesting the cancer vaccine rally didn't restart-it never really went away.
Still, the stock remains below its recent peak in mid-August, when Moderna and Merck announced the results of a late-stage clinical trial for their mRNA vaccine candidate, intismeran autogene. A treatment combining the vaccine with Merck's Keytruda drug proved more effective at preventing the recurrence of skin cancer than Keytruda alone.
Moderna spiked 7.2% to $156.15 on Thursday. While shares remain below the levels they reached last month, when they finished above $170, the latest gains put Moderna on track for its highest close and largest single-day percent gain since Aug. 19, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
The rally came days after Moderna leadership delivered an optimistic outlook during the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference. President Stephen Hoge told attendees on Monday that Moderna remains on track for its longtime goal of reaching cash breakeven by 2028, fueled by expected revenue growth of up to 10%.
"That has been based on the strength of our infectious disease vaccines business," Hoge said. "We now have five products approved." That's up from zero in 2020, before the pandemic thrust Moderna into the spotlight with its first commercial product: the Spikevax Covid vaccine, built on its flagship mRNA platform.
Hoge noted that the company has been investing in intismeran while aiming to expand its main commercial franchise. "We currently have a very large book of work with our partner Merck that includes nine ongoing trials, multiple Phase 3s," Hoge said, referring to late-stage clinical trials that could serve as a gateway to regulatory approval.
The partners are currently testing the vaccine in patients with lung cancer, renal cell carcinoma, and bladder cancer, in addition to melanoma. While Moderna's 177% stock surge may be a one-off, and plenty of questions surround the broader commercial opportunity for mRNA vaccines, it seems the intismeran narrative is just getting started.