金吾财讯 | 中信证券研究指，市场关注运价创历史性新高后的持续性及旺季运价是否进一步上行，但核心矛盾为有效运力损失螺旋上升和货盘放量共振对运输端的挤压，短期运费仍存进一步上涨的韧性，当前运费尚未充分反映供求关系的紧张程度。供给端：有效运力损失螺旋上升成为必须重视的核心变量，8月21日以来暗航、富察伊拉附近STS、绕行成为保障货量运输的主要方式，中东区域的货盘通过各种形式的中转货量或占85%以上，富察伊拉、埃及艾因港码头拥堵效应日益突出，“一船难求”带来的紧张程度持续的时间和张力或超预期。需求端：本轮湾区产油国出货诉求（料大中东区域保持每天900~1000万桶的出货量）、主要消费国进口拐点或为需求端主要变化，裂解价差持续扩大强化大宗贸易商和湾内产油国抢货冲动，料湾区9月中转货量进一步增加，旺季需求韧性可期。传统航运周期供需分析范式需要因势利导、相应优化调整，4Q26油轮龙头估值和利润有望创历史新高。风险因素：补库需求低于预期，地缘冲突影响超预期，霍尔木兹海峡通行恢复低于预期。
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