China's Crude Imports Likely to Remain Low, Goldman Says

Dow Jones
Sep 23

0851 GMT - China's crude imports are expected to stay low in the coming months if oil prices remain elevated, analysts at Goldman Sachs say. Seaborne imports are currently about 3 million barrels a day below seasonal norms, despite a modest pickup in September. According to the U.S. bank, imports could increase by about 600,000 barrels a day in the fourth quarter mainly due to seasonal factors and refineries exporting more refined products while drawing down inventories more slowly. Despite the increase, imports are still forecast to be more than 3 million barrels a day lower than a year ago. "We continue to view a possible escalation of strikes on Mideast crude production and export infrastructure--not higher China imports--as the main upside risk to our crude price forecast," the analysts say. Goldman sees Brent at $85 a barrel in December.

 

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