Tiger Brokers

内房股承压 中国海外宏洋集团（00081）跌2.96% 小摩料一线城市楼价于26财年呈偏软式企稳

金吾财讯
Sep 21

金吾财讯 | 港股内房股盘中承压，截至发稿，中国海外宏洋集团（00081）跌2.96%，新城发展（01030）跌2.36%，越秀地产（00123）跌1.88%，华润置地（01109）跌1.19%，建发国际集团（01908）跌1.15%。消息面上，摩根大通新近研究指，国家统计局8月一手销售及施工数据进一步转弱，同时首次公布全国二手成交量数据，今年首八个月按年升11%。70城一手楼价按月跌幅由7月的0.18%轻微收窄至8月的0.17%，二手楼价按月跌幅则由0.29%扩大至0.31%。该行继续预期一线城市楼价于2026财年呈偏软式企稳（由上海带动）；随着预售标准收紧令供应下降，该行认为上海以外更广泛的楼价企稳或于2027年出现。全国一手销售方面，该行预期2026财年持续下行，2027财年或因预售退场而跌幅扩大（该行预测主要发展商合约销售于2027财年按年跌20%至30%），而二手成交量则继续录得按年正增长（约5%至10%）。若政策或销售数据未有上行惊喜，该行认为行业近期或将跑输。一手住宅销售额按年跌幅由7月的9%扩大至8月的12%，该行预测2026全年按年跌10%。施工数据进一步转弱，8月新开工按年跌31%，竣工按年跌28%，房地产投资按年跌25%。该行预测2026全年新开工按年跌22%、竣工按年跌20%；并因“828政策”或迫使发展商放慢增长以管理现金流，该行对2027年预测土地出让及新开工均按年跌约30%，竣工及房地产投资均按年跌约20%。

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