【摩根大通:其偏鹰的韩国央行3.75%利率预测仍存在上行空间】摩根大通表示,只要信贷与金融市场保持稳定,若半导体拉动的经济增长推高通胀,其原本就高于市场普遍预期的韩国利率预测还存在进一步上行风险。这家华尔街机构预计,韩国央行将于今年11月、明年2月及5月加息,在本轮紧缩周期中将政策基准利率上调至3.75%。该预测高于媒体经济学家调查得出的3.5%预期中值,参与调查的经济学家预计利率将维持在3.5%直至2028年第二季度。摩根大通经济学家Seok Gil Park 在采访中称:“我们给出的预测是3.75%,但现阶段要确定利率终点上限还为时过早。我们正经历一场前所未有的宏观冲击。”
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