日本央行表态不及预期,叠加日本休市,日元面临下行风险

格隆汇
13 hours ago
未来一周日元极易出现剧烈波动并进一步走弱。日本即将迎来三天假期,市场流动性将会降低;同时,日本央行没有就后续加息节奏给出更明确指引,令投资者感到失望。周一日元汇率在 1 美元兑 156.86 日元附近企稳。上周五日元一度大跌 1.3%,当时日本央行有两名理事对加息持反对意见。后续有消息称官员致电市场参与者开展汇率核查,这是潜在汇市干预买入日元的前兆,但该消息仅小幅收窄日元跌幅。上周日元累计贬值超 2%,创下近一年最大单周跌幅。“与近期日元在央行会议前多数强势上涨的情况类似,日本央行这次已将其势头彻底遏制住了,”Capital Economics高级市场经济学家James Reilly在一份报告中写道,“可以说,日元对美元走势的显著好转将取决于美国方面的因素。”此次传出的汇率核查消息,也凸显日本当局有可能再度入市阻止日元继续走弱,一旦干预,汇率会快速剧烈波动,令交易者蒙受损失。日本持续至周三的假期会造成市场流动性不足,若官方出手干预,干预效果会被放大。今年 4 月底至 5 月初黄金周假期也曾出现类似情况,当时日元跌破 160 关口后,日本实施了汇市干预。

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