大摩:美股短期面临7%的下跌风险

格隆汇
Sep 21
摩根士丹利策略师Michael Wilson的团队表示,美国股市容易受到能源价格进一步上涨以及债券市场波动加剧的影响,在这种情景下,标普500指数可能下跌最多7%。策略师门表示,尽管强劲的企业盈利迄今帮助股价抵御了债券收益率上升的压力,但标普500指数估值在过去四个月已经下滑至3月以来最低水平。Wilson在一份报告中写道:“如果由于金融环境进一步收紧和/或能源价格大幅上涨,估值修正短期内进一步恶化,我们认为标普500指数可能在牛市于年底前恢复之前跌至7100点。”这一水平意味着标普500指数较上周五收盘价下跌7%。Wilson还预计,在11月中期选举前,市场波动性将有所上升,但他最终认为,企业盈利前景强劲将推动年底反弹,指数将向其8000点目标位靠近。这意味着较当前水平上涨近5%。

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