德银:市场可能低估本轮全球加息幅度,但加息未必导致股市下跌

智通财经
Sep 21
【德银:市场可能低估本轮全球加息幅度,但加息未必导致股市下跌】德意志银行表示,投资者可能低估主要央行本轮加息周期的最终幅度。宏观策略师Henry Allen指出,美联储、欧洲央行和日本央行过去两周均已加息,而大宗商品价格上涨、金融环境仍偏宽松,意味着央行可能需要进一步收紧政策。布伦特原油目前约为每桶100美元,能源价格上涨尚未完全反映在通胀数据中;与此同时,标普500指数接近历史高位,信用利差仍处低位。德银指出,市场历史上更容易低估加息幅度,2022年投资者最初预计美联储首年加息约200个基点,实际超过400个基点。不过,德银认为加息并不必然导致股市下跌,并以1999年为例称,当年美联储累计加息175个基点,标普500指数全年仍上涨近20%。

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