惠誉:预计2027年油市将重回大幅过剩

格隆汇
Sep 23
惠誉评级预计,石油市场将在2027年重回大幅过剩。尽管该机构预计明年油价将下跌,但已将2027年油价预测从每桶65美元上调至70美元,以反映中东冲突持续时间超出预期以及其对地缘政治风险溢价的影响。分析师Brian Coulton和Alex Muscatelli承认,这些预测存在高度不确定性。假设美国与伊朗在2027年第一季度达成协议,供需基本面可能在决定油价方面发挥更大作用。上行风险方面,地缘政治不确定性可能导致明年油价平均达到每桶85美元;下行风险方面,供应快速恢复可能使油价跌至每桶55美元。

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