巴克莱:在全球市场恢复供需平衡之前 油价可能会上涨50%

金融界
Sep 22

来源:环球市场播报

巴克莱表示,如果当前局势持续下去,市场达到平衡之前,油价有可能上涨50%。

分析师Amarpreet Singh在9月21日的报告中写道,本月早些时候沙特东西向输油管道中断凸显了中东石油产量持续缓慢复苏面临的风险。

Singh写道,库存和消费指标显示“价格在供需趋于平衡之前还有很长的路要走”,并补充说,这加剧了该行上调价格预测的风险。

虽然目前来自中东的净供应损失估计为470万桶/日 ,而战争初期这一数字为1200万至1300万桶/日 ,“但另一方面,目前的库存缓冲也小得多”。

预计布伦特将在2026年第四季度达到每桶95美元,随后在接下来的四个季度中分别为每桶90美元、85美元、85美元和80美元。

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