金吾财讯 | 华泰证券发布港股策略，利率波动率下降但点位风险尚未解除，盈利预期暂未修复，港股市场短期或有企稳反弹，但时间和程度都有待观察。在FOMC落地后期权市场隐含看跌情绪和负Gamma波动有所降温，市场或较之前有技术性改善。但从趋势看，港股目前面对的海外流动性收紧和国内基本面平淡格局并未扭转。1）FOMC靴子落地后改善了利率波动率，但美债利率点位依然维持在5%附近，后续路径以油价和通胀决定，且全球央行收紧货币政策的方向并未改变，对港股估值形成制约。2）基本面上，二季报盈利增长中金融和资源品为主要贡献，近期盈利预期震荡走平，未明显改善。
配置上，该机构认为均衡配置需要从行业层面进一步下沉到结构层面。红利仍是底仓，但应控制股息率优势相对A股收敛、派息率提升难度较大的行业敞口，如银行、煤炭，增配石化和燃气等更具性价比的方向；创新药及CXO龙头在加息落地交易中已有修复，可继续持有，但β弹性有限，需精选个股并设好止盈；饮料乳品等必需消费进入基本面底部右侧，但缺少催化，保持耐心。
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