高盛料中国第四季原油进口仍低迷

格隆汇
Sep 23
高盛报告指出,若原油价格维持高位,中国未来几个月的原油进口可能仍较低迷,从而限制油价进一步上涨。美伊战争自2月底爆发以来,由于霍尔木兹海峡运输受阻,布兰特原油价格已上涨约36%,但中国进口放缓帮助抑制更大涨幅。报告预计,中国第四季原油进口将仅按季小幅增加约每日60万桶,按年则料减少每日300万桶;并认为中东原油生产和出口基础设施可能遭遇进一步袭击,是其原油价格预测面临的主要上行风险。高盛表示,中国近期减少俄罗斯和伊朗原油采购、转向未受制裁的供应,可能已经对全球基准油价构成支撑。如果中国原油采购大体维持不变,且中东战争没有升级,布兰特原油价格可能小幅回落,因为市场可能已经计入中国进口显著回升的预期。

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