银河证券:产业韧性凸显 美联储加息不改AI长期逻辑

格隆汇
2 hours ago
银河证券研报称,长期维度看,美联储加息不会改变AI技术革命提升生产率的根本逻辑。AI基础设施建设虽短期推高芯片、电力等资源需求,但长期来看,AI通过提升全要素生产率、扩大供给能力,将形成结构性通缩效应,对冲通胀压力。全球AI资本开支长期增长趋势并未逆转,算力需求仍将持续扩张。美联储多位官员认为,AI将推高中性利率水平,这意味着即便名义利率维持高位,实际政策利率也可能相对偏低,AI产业的增长韧性足以支撑其在高利率环境下持续发展。因此,中长期来看,AI产业的基本面逻辑依然坚实,加息带来的估值调整反而为具备真实业绩支撑的企业提供了更合理的估值起点。

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