Global Equities Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
Sep 24

The latest Market Talks covering Equities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0923 GMT - StarHub may have to raise equity to finance a potential deal to buy peer M1, says Macquarie Capital's Zhiwei Foo in a note. StarHub confirmed it is in talks with M1 owner Keppel Ltd. to acquire the telecommunications unit. Foo estimates that StarHub could need to issue stock equivalent to 12% of its existing shares to ensure the deal is earnings-per-share-accretive within certain tested sensitivities, assuming that M1's enterprise value is 1.16 billion Singapore dollars and that M1 and StarHub have synergies worth around S$100 million. He reckons StarHub has to either negotiate a lower price or drive higher synergies with M1 to make the deal work. Macquarie continues to prefer Singtel in the telecommunications sector, given the uncertainty around a potential StarHub-M1 deal. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

0922 GMT - H&M's fiscal third-quarter profit is ahead of expectations, driven by a one-off benefit related to past tariffs, but fourth-quarter guidance has become more cautious, Bernstein analysts write. Guidance for the fourth quarter is for external factors to be "somewhat negative" and the cost of markdowns as a percentage of sales to increase due to a more extensive Black Friday period and the timing of Cyber Monday. Inventory has also begun to accumulate; after falling 2% in the second quarter it has risen 9% in the third due to supply chain disruption and temporary effects of the company's consolidation of its European warehouses. "We expect a slightly negative market reaction to Q4 caution." Shares fall 2.4%. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

0920 GMT - Societe Generale is at a very attractive valuation because its shareholder distributions should improve considerably in the coming years, Baader's Sylvain Perret says. Baader prices in around 26 billion euros of cumulative distribution from 2026 through 2029, above the French bank's own projection of 21 billion euros. This should benefit Societe Generale's valuation over the medium-to-long-term, Perret says, while it continues to close the profitability gap with peer BNP Paribas. However, the bank could still be affected by short-term uncertainties from French macroeconomics, Baader adds. Shares are down 2.6%. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)

0916 GMT - H&M's third-quarter underlying EBIT is broadly in line with consensus, driven mainly by resilient sales in a tough macro context, Jefferies analyst James Grzinic writes. The Swedish retailer's underlying gross margin miss was offset by good cost control, he adds. Guidance for 1% sales growth in September will likely underpin consensus estimates for the fourth quarter at 1.2%, given that weather-impacted demand might have shifted the purchase of garments later into the quarter, Grzinic says. Looking ahead, rebuilding future profit will be more reliant on accelerating top-line delivery, given the reduced opportunities for cost savings and higher input cost pressures, he says. "The broader macro outlook is an added complication, even if strongly accelerating inflation at Chinese platforms in Europe could be a meaningful offset." Shares fall 2.4%. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

0856 GMT - AI stands out as the key investment theme in China amid a changing global macroeconomic environment, HSBC analysts say in a note. "The Fed has hiked, [and] lower investor anxiety and strong earnings growth have led to a solid rebound in U.S. AI trade," they write. The trend could expand to China, thanks to tangible and considerable earnings growth, the analysts add. HSBC has buy ratings on Naura Technology, Shengyi Technology and Hongfa Technology, all of which are companies in the AI supply chain. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

0851 GMT - Prudential PLC is on track to meet its 2026 growth guidance despite a headwind from sales regulation in mainland China, Berenberg's Michael Huttner says. The insurance and investment company expects to achieve its target of more than 10% growth in 2026 in all four key metrics of new business profit, operating profit, gross operating free surplus generation and dividend, Berenberg says, citing a meeting with Prudential management. It faces a headwind in mainland China from a limit to upfront incentives, which was the main driver for bancassurance sales. However, business development remains strong in Hong Kong and the company continues to focus on margin improvement, Berenberg says. Shares are down 0.9%. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)

0841 GMT - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria is positive on growth in both Mexico and Spain and confirms upside to its medium-term profit target, Citi analysts say. The Spanish bank could exceed its net profit target for 2025 through 2028 of around 48 billion euros, Citi says, citing a meeting with BBVA's CEO and CFO. This compares with Citi's own estimate of 49 billion euros. BBVA is gaining market share in both loans and deposits in Spain, Citi adds. BBVA remains Citi's top Spanish bank pick. Shares are down 0.4%. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)

0840 GMT - China's hotel stocks may face some pressure in the near term, HSBC analysts say, noting that they previously "underestimated the combined impact of this summer's adverse weather and elevated fuel costs on hotel demand." The industry's revenue per available room moderated to a low-single-digit decline in 2Q, down from mid-single-digit growth in 1Q. Holidays in the autumn in some parts of China may provide a short-term lift, but these factors won't offset broader weakness in 2H, the bank says. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

0831 GMT - Vistry Group investors should be reassured by the conclusion of new CEO Adam Daniels' business review, but are likely want to see progress before they fully re-engage, Jefferies analysts write. Daniels--appointed to the role in April--said the now completed review confirms the company has strong fundamentals but that "execution, regional discipline and capital allocation" over the past few years haven't been consistent enough. Jefferies has a hold rating on the stock and a 274 pence target price. Shares are down 9.3% at 243 pence and 62% lower over the year to date. (ian.walker@wsj.com)

0826 GMT - Vistry Group's new CEO Adam Daniels is betting on slimming down business to turn its fortunes around in a review that leaves no stone unturned and no target unchallenged, RBC Capital Markets analysts say in a research note. The real focus on the U.K. housebuilder's first-half earnings is on the outcome of the CEO review, according to RBC. "There are lots of costs and write-offs related to review and full year guidance remains elusive given the many moving parts," the analysts say. "In summary Vistry appreciates it is not fit for purpose in its current state and is embarking on an extreme weight loss program from which it hopes to emerge fitter and leaner and able to punch above rather than below its weight." Shares fall 8.1%. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)

0825 GMT - First Resources' stronger earnings growth and dividend outlook will likely be supported by higher crude palm oil price estimates, says DBS Group Research's William Simadiputra in a note. The analyst expects crude palm oil prices to remain firm through 2027, buoyed by El Nino-related supply risks and elevated oil prices. He raises his 2027 earnings estimates for First Resources by 5% to US$500 million, which implies a 13% on-year growth. The Singapore-listed palm oil producer also remains committed to an up to 60% dividend payout ratio, he adds. DBS raises its target price to 6.30 Singapore dollars from S$5.00 and retains its buy rating. Shares rise 4.7% to S$4.65.(megan.cheah@wsj.com)

0814 GMT - UBS Group faces questions on international competitiveness after the Swiss upper house passed new capital legislation, Citi analysts say. The outcome of the vote, at 90% CET1 capital for foreign subsidiaries, is marginally better than the initial government proposal of 100% CET1 backing but is worse than UBS was seeking, the analysts note. Citi estimates the Swiss bank will need to raise around $8 billion over the seven-year transition period, after adjusting for excess capital already held. This is manageable, Citi says, but means UBS is likely to end up with a CET1 ratio above the current target. "This could force UBS to partially withdraw from certain international product segments over time," Citi says. Shares are down 1.5%.

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