RBA Rate Rises Can Only Mitigate Banks' Margin Declines
Dow Jones
8 hours ago
0335 GMT - Any interest-rate rises by the Reserve Bank of Australia are seen by Morgan Stanley analysts as mitigating major banks' margin declines rather than supporting expansion. With market pricing pointing to growing expectations that the RBA will deliver more than one interest-rate rise starting next week, MS analysts tell clients in a note that every 0.25% increase in the country's cash rate could add about 1 bp to their margin forecasts. However, they warn that major banks are less leveraged to rising rates than in 2022, when the RBA was last tightening policy. They see margins declining from current levels due to competition, deposit pricing and mix.
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