TradingKey - SpaceX Stock Surges and Retreats Below $150 Mark: Is the Rebound Over?
On September 24, Eastern Time, SpaceX (SPCX) shares continued to weaken, falling 0.3% in pre-market trading to temporarily trade at $147.91. Yesterday, SpaceX stock tumbled 4.11%, falling back below its opening price of $150 on its debut trading day. So, does SpaceX's fall below this key level mean the rebound has completely come to an end?
Recently, the market has noted that SpaceX is gradually slowing down and planning to phase out its main Falcon 9 rocket in stages, shifting more resources and launch missions comprehensively to the Starship system. Although this favors long-term commercial space scaling, operational risks and capital expenditure pressures during the short-term transition phase of business transformation have led some risk-averse investors to remain on the sidelines.
As the lockup expiration window of 90 to 180 days post-IPO approaches for early insiders and institutions, the market expects selling pressure to increase from profit-taking by early investors and employees, putting pressure on short-term market absorption capacity. Reportedly, a total of approximately 1.367 billion shares held by early insiders (excluding founder Elon Musk) and institutional investors will be unlocked and released into the secondary market, accounting for roughly 28% of restricted shares.
Although SpaceX's rebound has paused for now, it does not mean an outright crash, as its fundamentals have not deteriorated. After SpaceX's stock price broke below $150, short-term bullish momentum was suppressed, and the market is highly likely to seek support lower down. A more probable scenario is consolidation and share turnover within a broad range of $130 to $160, absorbing early profit-taking and selling pressure from locked-in positions.
SpaceX stock price chart, Source: TradingView
As a global aerospace leader, SpaceX's long-term valuation remains determined by Starlink's free cash flow and the commercialization progress of Starship. If there are major launch successes or better-than-expected revenue news in the third or fourth quarter, it will be key to launching a new upward trend, potentially challenging its all-time high of $225.
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