德意志银行预计年末前外汇市场延续平稳,日元料保持相对强势

智通财经
Sep 21
【德意志银行预计年末前外汇市场延续平稳,日元料保持相对强势】德意志银行表示,尽管今年大宗商品价格和利率大幅波动,全球外汇市场整体仍较为平静,预计这一格局将延续至年底。方向上,该行看好日元继续在交叉盘中保持相对强势,同时预计欧元兑美元仍以区间震荡为主:全球经济增长韧性及美元潜在尾部风险限制欧元下行空间,而美联储加息及高能源价格则压制其上涨空间。策略上,德意志银行仍偏好套息交易,但较年初以来的广泛做多立场更为谨慎和选择性;随着部分新兴市场实际利率的吸引力上升,该行开始增加部分做多新兴市场货币、做空美元的头寸。德意志银行指出,中东局势能否在年底前出现和平进展,将是影响这一更谨慎外汇策略能否奏效的重要变量。

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