金吾财讯 | 中信证券研究指，随着大模型向万亿参数MoE（混合专家）架构演进，单机8卡在内存、通信与功耗上同时面临约束，超节点将AI算力的最小部署单元扩展至64卡以上的机柜级Scale-up域。与传统集群相比，超节点在Scale-out网络之外新增了一张Scale-up网络，该机构认为，域规模扩大带来的增量中交换环节受益较为直接，交换芯片与交换机的用量与价值量有望随之提升。国内交换机市场主要由本土厂商占据，交换芯片仍以海外厂商供应为主，域内交换随整柜设计交付，服务器整机、交换芯片与交换机三个环节形成配套。风险因素：AI应用与模型演进不及预期；Scale-up协议收敛慢于预期；超节点整机柜出货与客户导入不及预期；国产交换芯片研发、客户导入及第三方空间不及预期；技术路线与测算假设的不确定性；交换机行业竞争加剧；地缘政治与供应链风险。
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