李蓓:AI目前跌的是估值 第二波下跌要等资本开支真正见顶 可能是明年年中

格隆汇
Sep 24
据腾讯财经,半夏投资创始人李蓓近日表示,AI的资本开支今年的确是高增长,明年也还会增长,但从季度环比的角度看,有可能在二季度左右见顶,即便不是二季度,也可能是三季度或四季度。 4月到6月,市场大幅上调了对2027年盈利的预期,因为资本开支上调了;同时基于2027年给出的估值水平也更高了,因为大家认为这是一个可持续的水平,后面还能继续增长。所以这一波下跌并不是“戴维斯双杀”,跌的是估值:市场仍然认可2027年利润大幅增长,但如果ARR上不去,投资水平就不可持续,资本开支很可能在2027年见顶,即便2027年不见顶,2028年也会见顶。最终端的收入起不来,产业链的投资就无法维持,那就给不了高估值。 我的看法是,AI的第二波下跌,要等资本开支真正见顶,可能是明年年中。到那时大家看到利润预期开始下滑,AI会跌第二波。

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