Capstone Copper's $385M Cozamin Deal Contingent Value May be Unrealistic
Dow Jones
Sep 21
0932 ET - Capstone Copper's full premium for the sale of its Cozamin mine might be difficult to achieve, according to TD Cowen in a note. Capstone is selling its mine in Mexico to Luca Mining for up to $385 million, made up of $275 million in cash, $15 million in Luca shares, $35 million of deferred consideration and up to $60 million linked to the price of copper. Analyst Craig Hutchison says "the premium is relatively modest and heavily reliant on contingent value that appears difficult to realize under our price assumptions." In particular, he points to the $60 million earn out which "requires annual average copper prices of at least $7.00/lb during 2027-2029, with maximum payments requiring copper prices above $8.50/lb," which compares to TD estimates that call for a peak of $5.60/lb in 2027.
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