雷蒙德·詹姆斯:全球谷物供应趋紧,2026/27年度玉米缺口料创33年来最大

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【雷蒙德·詹姆斯:全球谷物供应趋紧,2026/27年度玉米缺口料创33年来最大】雷蒙德·詹姆斯表示,受产量下降、需求强劲以及黑海出口能力受限影响,2026年全球谷物市场明显收紧。Zaner Ag Hedge首席市场分析师Karen Braun的判断称,2026/27年度全球玉米消费量预计将超过产量约2900万吨,为33年来最大的绝对供需缺口。美国玉米库存消费比已由年内早些时候的12.1%降至9.7%,跌破10%,而晚夏作物评级下滑及高温天气仍令最终产量面临进一步下调风险。与此同时,主要出口国玉米和小麦合计产量预计同比减少8400万吨。供需收紧已推动价格走高,自5月1日以来,玉米和小麦期货均上涨约8%,大豆上涨约12%。

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