德银:终点利率恐远超预期,升息未必导致股市下跌

格隆汇
Sep 22
德意志银行宏观策略师Henry Allen指出,随着美联储、欧洲央行、日本央行过去两周相继升息,全球主要央行已进入同步紧缩阶段,但市场仍可能低估本轮周期最终会走多远。市场误判关键不在会不会继续升息,而在终点利率需要升到多高、维持多久。德银亦指出,较深周期的尾部风险不等于股市必然大跌。若经济成长保持强劲,企业获利可在一定程度上抵销估值压力。以1999年为例,当年美联储持续升息、美债殖利率上行,标普500指数全年仍上涨近20%。

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