The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0530 GMT - The Australian dollar unwound early losses in Asia and is currently trading near 70.30 U.S. cents. The Aussie dollar will likely continue to ease this week and test technical support around 69.51 U.S. cents, says Kristina Clifton, currency strategist at CBA. The strength of the U.S. economy is attracting capital and weighing on all currencies, she adds. The Aussie dollar may receive some brief support if the Reserve Bank of Australia raises interest rates this week and points to another in the coming months. But any gain won't be sustained given pricing for an interest rate hike in November is already high, she adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
0522 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields rise on the day pressured by higher oil prices, trading close to but below recent multiyear highs, as U.S.-Iran peace talks stall. Peace negotiators are pressing Iran to make a concession on its nuclear program to revive ceasefire talks with the U.S. after President Trump rejected Iran's truce proposal. The two-year Treasury yield rises 4.4 basis points to 4.907%, the 10-year Treasury yield rises 2.8 basis points to 5.208%, while the 30-year Treasury yield is up 1.7 basis points at 5.518%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0519 GMT - The U.S. Treasury market is going through a light buyers' strike, says Jason Williams at Citi in a note. Last Wednesday's strong PMI print added fuel to the fire, while Federal Reserve speeches remained very hawkish last week, "likely keeping buyers at bay," the strategist says. "Continued hawkish rhetoric has us wondering why the SEP [Summary of Economic Projections] dot plot was not more hawkish given the median implied one more hike," he says. U.S. Treasury yields rise in Asian trade with the 10-year yield up 2.8 basis points to 5.208%, according to Tradewb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0519 GMT - The Monetary Authority of Singapore's tightening cycle is likely over, after adjusting its policy twice this year, Capital Economics say in a note. August inflation figures showed price pressures are building, with core CPI rising to a nearly a two-year high. While food price inflation remains low, there is a growing chance that El Nino would disrupt food supplies and push up imported food costs, CE says. CE notes evidence of higher energy costs feeding through into broader price pressures or rising food costs could prompt more policy tightening.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0518 GMT - The U.S. dollar was a little higher in the Asian trading session as risk sentiment weakened. Brent oil increased as Iran said it would not soften its conditions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz after President Trump rejected its proposal. The U.S dollar will likely continue to grind higher this week because of the strong U.S. economy, says Kristina Clifton, currency strategist at CBA. The U.S. Dollar Index could even set a new year-to-date high above 101.8 points this week, she adds. The next hurdle for traders is U.S. inflation data for August on Wednesday with the risk for a strong result, she says. (james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)
0508 GMT - The latest leg of the bond selloff reflected stronger-than-expected September PMI prints, especially in the eurozone and the U.S., as well as sensitivity to energy headlines, J.P. Morgan strategists say in a note. Noise around potential U.S. diesel export restrictions added another layer of uncertainty, they say. The strategists recommend investors stay neutral on German bond duration near-term, "although we stress that intermediate yields remain compelling for long-term investors who can tolerate near-term volatility." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0506 GMT - JPMorgan affirms its bearish view on U.S. duration given the coming labor-market report and long position technicals, but its bearish bias isn't as strong as it has been in recent weeks, its strategists say in a note. They find that both the front-end and intermediate sectors of the U.S. Treasury curve have moved back in line with fundamental drivers, providing some near-term support for yields. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0505 GMT - Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities brought forward its projected timing for Bank of Japan rate hikes to December 2026 and April 2027 from its earlier forecast of January and June 2027. "Expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes increase the chance that the BOJ will move somewhat faster in adjusting its degree of monetary support," the brokerage's analysts say in a note. The BOJ's July meeting minutes released Monday showed that one policy board member pointed to the possibility that the pace of rate hikes could be quicker than market expectations, given that underlying inflation is approaching 2% and greater attention should be paid to upside risks to prices than before.