德商银行:低波动与加息预期升温令外汇市场面临风险

格隆汇
Sep 28
德国商业银行分析师Thu Lan Nguyen在一份报告中表示,如果各国央行加息幅度低于市场预期,可能会打破当前外汇市场的低波动状态。她表示,当前外汇波动率较低,反映出市场对未来货币政策路径的不确定性下降。这是因为在伊朗战争持续数月后,市场对其经济影响的评估变得更加清晰。不过,她指出,许多货币市场对未来加息的预期似乎已经过高。外汇市场的低波动也表明,市场几乎未将任何重大的货币政策意外情况纳入定价考量。“这种状况组合意味着,一旦经济形势或货币政策的实际走向偏离当前预期,市场便面临剧烈回调的风险。”

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