摩通与市场共识唱反调:泰国央行明年将加息三次

格隆汇
Sep 28
摩根大通预计,泰国央行明年将加息三次,这一预测明显偏离市场共识,市场普遍预期泰国央行将把利率维持在1%不变至2027年。摩根大通经济学家Charnon Boonnuch周一在报告中表示,预计泰国央行将从明年第一季度开始加息三次,每次加息25个基点,到2027年底将基准利率从目前的1%上调至1.75%。措辞较市场预期非常鹰派。泰国基准利率目前已经处于全球最低水平之列,甚至低于日本。摩根大通押注经济增长走强、通胀重新抬头将改变这一局面。不过,摩根大通仍预计泰国央行将在2026年剩余时间内维持利率不变,因为经济增长低于潜在水平以及信贷疲软,使得央行在更早加息方面仍面临较高门槛。

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