Global Commodities Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
Sep 28

The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0323 GMT - Iron ore falls in early Asian trading. Prices are likely weighed by weak steel demand, ANZ Research says in a note. The China Iron and Steel Association has urged mills to curb production and draw down inventories to protect margins and limit excess supply, the team adds. The most-traded iron-ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is down 1.05% at 704.0 yuan a ton. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)

0259 GMT - The finalization of Orica's North American ammonium nitrate supply arrangements for FY 2027 is "a slight positive," according to RBC Capital Markets. Yet it is only for one year and there will be a negligible impact on margins, the broker says. On the other hand, the delay in the sale of the Deer Park land is "a slight negative," says RBC. It expects the land will eventually be sold, and Orica says the change in timing doesn't affect its underlying business operations. RBC keeps an outperform rating. Its price target on Orica is A$27.00/share. The stock is up 2.3% at A$23.37/share. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0242 GMT - Palm oil falls in Asian trading. Technical analysis suggests CPO futures could continue to see negative momentum, AmInvestment Bank says in a note. Indonesia may face a shorter-than-usual wet season from November, potentially affecting crop conditions, it adds. AmInvestment Bank expects CPO futures to find support at 4,624 ringgit a ton and face resistance at 4,724 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for December delivery is down 10 ringgit at 4,662 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0240 GMT - The rejected Gold Fields bid for Northern Star puts somewhat of a floor under the Australian miner's share price, says Macquarie. That's because it shows clear corporate interest in the company as a whole, the bank says. "Perhaps the bid comes from an African gold company which is happy to look-through the short-term risks of NST (management/board changes, and KCGM ramp-up risk) and is keen to diversify away from higher-jurisdiction risk countries for increased Australian gold exposure," Macquarie says. It notes that Northern Star trades at a roughly 6% discount to Gold Fields based on valuation. Macquarie has a neutral rating and A$22.50/share target on Northern Star. Shares are up 8.1% at A$23.91. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0142 GMT - A rejected takeover proposal for Northern Star from Gold Fields values the Australian miner at 8.7x enterprise value/Ebitda based on FY27 estimates, RBC Capital Markets says. That is a 16% premium to peer Evolution Mining, which trades at 7.5x, says RBC. It is a roughly 48% premium to RBC's ASX gold coverage, on 5.9x, the broker says. Northern Star shares are up 8.5% at A$23.98. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0121 GMT - Indonesia's agrarian reform law may cap Southeast Asian plantation stocks' share-price performance as regulatory uncertainty increases, Maybank analyst Ong Chee Ting says in a note. The law might not trigger an immediate redistribution of productive plantation land, but future landholding limits and rules on existing concessions remain unclear, he says. Further guidance is needed on whether the 20% plasma requirement will apply to existing plantations, he notes, referring to the portion of plantations operated by smallholders. Pending greater clarity, near-term CPO price upside will likely remain limited by strong production and weak exports, despite a more positive outlook for 2027, he reckons. Malaysia-focused plantation companies could be relatively less exposed to the regulatory risks, he adds. Maybank pegs SD Guthrie, Sarawak Oil Palms and Genting Plantations as top buys. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0039 GMT - Gold falls in early Asian trade. Higher oil prices and strong U.S. industrial activity data reinforced expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may need to keep policy tighter for longer, ANZ Research writes in a note. Rising yields and a strong U.S. dollar will likely keep the macro backdrop challenging for the yellow metal, the team adds. Spot gold is 1.1% lower at $4,237.21 an ounce.

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