金吾财讯 | 中国银河证券表示，市场需要重新定价“更高更久”的利率环境，港股短期缺乏趋势性向上的催化。此前部分资金博弈加息落地即反弹，但美联储9月议息会议整体基调较市场预期更为鹰派。点阵图显示，预计年内至少还有一次加息，主席沃什将通胀列为主要矛盾，释放明确的抗通胀信号。这意味着利空出尽的逻辑被打破，不确定性并未消除，而是被延后至第四季度。该机构指，投资策略上应把握三条主线：主线大概率是存量外资与本地资金主导下的结构性防御与局部进攻。建议关注：（1）科技板块。有真实订单和盈利支撑的算力硬件、AI基础设施标的，可能相对抗跌，纯概念、缺乏业绩兑现的标的则可能面临更大的流动性折价。建议关注光模块/光纤、PCB、高速连接、AI 服务器/整机、国产 AI 芯片与晶圆代工、电力/备用电源/数据中心配套、大厂模型/Agent 进展等。（2）创新药及CXO板块。近期外资流入医药生物较多，创新药在加息落地后已有修复，需要精选个股并设好止盈。（3）低波红利。在利率高企、南向缺席的环境下，防御性配置的必要性上升，建议关注公用事业、电信、能源、金融。
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