【券商聚焦】中信证券:美联储加息存三大预期差 A股风格或难以一枝独秀

金吾财讯
Sep 30

金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示,在经济增长分化而平淡的格局下,美联储货币政策将成为影响全球大类资产走势的最关键主线之一。美联储加息预期明确,但市场对加息的定价仍存在三点预期差。一是美联储本轮加息是“鹰”非“鸽”;二是以全球权益为代表的部分资产对本轮美联储加息定价并不充分;三是经济格局和资金黏性决定权益对加息定价可能滞后,但并不会脱敏。大类资产收益、波动和赔率的不可能三角以及美联储货币政策收紧将共同决定大类资产配置的中期格局,资产配置建议以把握安全性和高确定性的结构性机会为主。

该机构指出,A股风格或难以一枝独秀。从分子端看,中国经济分化和边际变化有限的格局延续,市场短期缺乏除硬科技外的新主线。但相应资产偏高的估值和较高的拥挤度显示投资者对分子的定价已经较为充分,在美联储可能开启持续加息周期的环境下,分母端的边际变化及其对资产价格的影响可能都更为显著。因此,预计美联储加息趋势将扰动指数表现,在市场高拥挤度环境下,后续市场修复进程中风格表现可能也不会一枝独秀。建议投资者关注市场估值显著分化以及美联储加息双重背景下,估值分化趋于收敛所带来的大金融、公用事业配置机会,以及油价保持高位对大周期板块的支撑作用。

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