The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1033 GMT - European banks could gain from the acceleration in eurozone corporate borrowing, UBS Investment Bank analysts say in a note. UBS analysis suggests that the eurozone could be "in the early stages of a large re-leveraging of the private sector", they say. "Accelerating corporate borrowing is a catalyst for a more upbeat outlook." This trend could indicate better European banking growth than valuations suggest, the analysts say. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1015 GMT - Flows into cryptocurrencies are slowing to a trickle after a surge of investor interest last week saw the best weekly ETF inflows since October 2025, Saxo Bank analysts write. Demand is highly concentrated in BlackRock's bitcoin ETF, and a sudden jump or drop in one-day flows may be the activity of just one large investor, they say. Spot bitcoin saw outflows of $75.16 million over the last 24 hours, according to crypto data platform CoinGlass. Bitcoin prices today will find resistance at $84,900, with PCE inflation data in focus, the analysts add. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)
0942 GMT - The euro is unlikely to weaken much further after reaching a 16-month low against the dollar on Tuesday as the Federal Reserve probably won't raise interest rates again until December, ING's Francesco Pesole says in a note. However, if upcoming U.S. economic data are strong and the Fed raises rates in October while signalling further tightening, the euro could fall to as low as $1.10, he says. "Even lower oil prices might not help, as markets may be quicker to price out European Central Bank tightening than the Fed's." The euro rises 0.1% to $1.1353 after falling as low as $1.1310 Tuesday. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0933 GMT - China's central bank may still prefer targeted, low-profile credit easing over broad-based monetary stimulus through policy rate and reserve-requirement-ratio reductions, Barclays says in a research note. "While Chinese yuan strength has eased some external constraints, record-low bank net interest margins leave limited room for further rate cuts," it writes. Policy easing has historically compressed net interest margins, as lending rates linked to the loan prime rate reprice lower quickly, Barclays notes. "Policymakers appear increasingly concerned that excessively low rates could undermine financial stability and weaken monetary transmission." (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
0926 GMT - The cost of insuring euro credit against default drops as market optimism resurfaces after strong earnings from tech firm Micron and as weak U.S. data and comments from a Federal Reserve official reduce prospects of another U.S. interest-rate hike next month. "Resilient earnings and AI enthusiasm" currently outweigh market concerns about high borrowing costs, IG analysts say in a note. The iTraxx Europe Crossover index of euro high-yield credit default swaps falls 5 basis points to 296bps. Still, it remains close to a nearly 6-month high of 301bps reached on Tuesday, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0919 GMT - Singapore's strong policy buffers remain a key differentiator for its equities amid heightened risks to growth, J.P. Morgan Securities strategists say in a note. The city-state's central bank will allocate 1.45 billion Singapore dollars to asset managers from its equity-market development program, they say, affirming the government's commitment to the stock market. The strategists estimate around S$435 million inflow to the index tracking small- and mid-cap stocks from this allocation, depending on the strategies employed. Elevated bond yields and surging energy prices likely weigh on sentiment in Asia, but enhances the investment case for safe-haven Singapore, they add. JPM has 12-month base-case target of 6500 for the benchmark FTSE Straits Times Index. The index is 0.5% lower at 5686.43. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
0905 GMT - China's new property measures, which include mortgage subsidies, are "still too small to reverse the downtrend," Barclays says in a research note. The government's strategy appears to be to use a relatively small subsidy to encourage a larger increase in home purchases, the bank says. But the key constraint behind the prolonged housing downturn and weak mortgage lending isn't "the cost of credit, but the demand for credit," Barclays says. "Households are unlikely to take on more debt when income expectations remain weak and confidence in the housing market has yet to recover." (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
0845 GMT - The U.K. government could use "golden shares or other veto rights" to shift ownership of the utilities company Thames Water from private investors to public ownership, CreditSights' Helen Rodriguez and Scott Haysom say in a note. Prime Minister Andy Burnham on Tuesday announced that a strengthened Water Bill would be presented to parliament to pave the way for stronger public ownership of U.K. water companies. Golden shares are a special category of stocks that give shareholders superior voting rights over important decisions. The government could use golden shares to shift ownership as these do not involve big financial outlays, the analysts say. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0808 GMT - China's latest stimulus package is considerably smaller than the one rolled out two years ago, Barclays economists say in a research note. China cut its pledged supplementary lending rate by 25 basis points rather than providing broad-based monetary stimulus through policy rate or reserve-requirement-ratio cuts, they note. "Policymakers appear increasingly concerned that excessively low rates could undermine financial stability and weaken monetary transmission," they say. While the policies selectively lower financing costs at the margin for the real economy, the economists think that China's key challenge is the subdued demand for credit. The weakness in household and corporate demand mainly stems from subdued domestic prospects, rather than higher interest rates, they add. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)
0759 GMT - The scope of China's newly announced mortgage subsidies likely disappointed the market, Julius Baer's Richard Tang says in a note. While the mortgage interest subsidy program was widely expected by the market, the actual scope likely falls short of expectations, as the program is restricted to a small subset of housing types and transactions, he writes. The analyst estimates that only 20%-25% of housing deals will qualify, mostly in lower-tier cities, resulting in marginal effect to investments. "For the equity market, we believe the absence of a policy surprise may extend the weak market sentiment and a year-end rally is much less likely to happen," he adds. Julius Baer continues to favor artificial-intelligence hardware and dividend stocks in China.(megan.cheah@wsj.com)
0745 GMT - Sterling rises to a one-month high against the euro after data showed the U.K. economy grew more than previously estimated in the second quarter. The Office for National Statistics revised growth to 0.5% from a previously estimate of 0.4%. "Stronger growth will encourage the Bank of England to tighten policy soon if higher energy prices prove more persistent," MUFG Bank's Lee Hardman says in a note. Meanwhile, U.K. Prime Minister Andy Burnham has suggested he would discuss re-joining the EU among the options for improving relations at the U.K.-EU summit later this year which would benefit sterling, he says. The euro falls to as low as 0.8548 pounds. Sterling rises 0.3% to an intraday high of $1.3278, according to LSEG. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0743 GMT - The Bank of Japan's Tankan survey could show a further rise in the corporate inflation outlook, says Mizuho Securities economist Ryosuke Katagi. He attributes this to the continuing Middle East tensions and higher oil prices potentially heightening the BOJ's concern over upside risks of underlying inflation exceeding 2%. In the previous June survey, Japanese companies projected a faster pace of growth in both output and overall prices. This, Katagi says, prompted the BOJ to deliver a sooner-than-usual interest-rate hike at its policy-setting meeting earlier this month. The Tankan survey is due Thursday.