金吾财讯 | 花旗（C）发布研报，将Moderna（MRNA）的股票评级从“中性”下调至“卖出”，并将目标价从80美元大幅下调至60美元。花旗指出，自去年8月Moderna与默克联合研发的个性化黑色素瘤癌症疫苗intismeran在3期临床试验中取得突破以来，公司股价已暴涨超过222%，而同期标普生物科技ETF（XBI）却下跌了2%。该行认为，市场目前的估值逻辑过度乐观，不仅提前计入了该疫苗在多种肿瘤类型中的成功扩展，还隐含了“不切实际”的销售预测。根据花旗的现金流折现模型，即便假设该癌症疫苗主导项目未来成功率为100%，Moderna的每股合理净现值（NPV）也仅约100美元，比目前交易水平低近一半。若要支撑此前市场冲高的每股200美元估值，Moderna肿瘤业务的年销售额需达到260亿美元，这几乎是花旗当前预测值的7倍。花旗总结称，Moderna当前估值缺乏基本面支撑，风险/收益比严重偏向负面，投资者应警惕回调风险。
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