摩根大通表示,尽管航运仍面临风险,但来自中东的原油流量几乎已恢复到战前水平。
“中东的石油出口动脉正在再次畅通,”摩根大通分析师娜塔莎·卡内瓦等人在9月29日的一份报告中表示,对于一个仍处于战争状态的地区来说,这是一个“显著的复苏”,尽管复苏并不均衡。
摩根大通的数据显示,目前来自中东的原油流量已反弹至1750万桶/日,相当于战前水平的98%;而柴油和汽油等成品油的出货量为300万桶/日,相当于战前水平的58%。过去五天的十日平均值显示,整体出货量已达到2025年水平的89%。
分析师表示,霍尔木兹海峡的原油流量已几乎“恢复到6月下旬的近1300万桶/日的高位,主要由沙特带动”。“但更高的过境流量不应被误认为是安全性的提高——相反,这反映出该行业在持续风险下运营的能力不断增强。”
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