Magnite's (MGNI) growth outlook has "improved considerably" with the anticipated advertising spending redirected from Alphabet's (GOOG, GOOGL) Google Ad Exchange due to the remedies proposed in the Department of Justice's ad-tech case earlier in the month, BofA Global Research said in a Tuesday note.
Based on the remedies in the unsealed memorandum opinion in the case, BofA analysts project that Magnite's share of open-web display ad spend increases to a range of 8% to 10% from 6%. The company's DV+ platform is also seen becoming a growth segment, compared with its previous outlook of little to no growth, the analysts said.
Google Ad Exchange's win rate could fall to as low as 30% from 90% currently under "truly fair" auctions, the analysts said. They noted that enforcement of the remedies remains a key risk, with effective oversight by the court-appointed monitor and technical committee key to Magnite realizing the opportunity to boost its win rate.
The analysts increased their estimate for the company's 2028 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization by 28%, with room for further revision if the win rate on new AdWords demand resembles a truly neutral auction, and if its win rate on existing demand improves.
BofA reiterated the company's stock rating at buy and raised the price target to $38 from $25.
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