Vail Resorts' (MTN) fiscal 2027 outlook depends on stronger lift-ticket sales to offset weaker season-pass sales and lower visitation, UBS said in a note Tuesday.

The company's fiscal 2027 outlook implies 9.7% revenue growth, with estimated revenue of about $3.1 billion. Vail Resorts expects resort earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of $805 million to $865 million, the analysts said.

The range is only slightly wider than its initial fiscal 2026 guidance despite lower visibility around demand, the analysts added.

The main issue is the shift from season pass sales to lift-ticket purchases. Pass sales are down about 6% in dollar value and 12% in units, but Vail believes this reflects delayed purchases rather than weaker demand for skiing, the analysts said.

"So Vail expects to recapture a meaningful portion of that demand through increase in lift ticket visitation," the analysts added.

UBS kept its neutral rating and $139 price target on Vail Resorts.

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