The tech industry’s eye-watering investments in artificial intelligence are already paying off—as long you own Nvidia stock.
The chip maker disclosed a $150 billion increase to its share-repurchase program Monday, raising its total buyback authorization to $235 billion. It expects to execute the full repurchase amount through fiscal year 2028, which ends in January of that year.
The buybacks reflect Nvidia’s enviable position in the AI economy. Because its chips form the foundation of model training, Nvidia is getting paid now, while other companies like Meta Platforms and Microsoft are spending big to secure a profitable spot in AI’s future. That gives the chip maker plenty of cash to deploy however it pleases.
“If I were Nvidia, I would even authorize more,” Ben Reitzes, head of technology research at Melius Research, told Barron’s on Monday.
Tech companies use buybacks to return excess cash flow to shareholders and offset any dilution of the share price due to employee stock grants. In Nvidia’s case, the number of outstanding shares has declined in recent years, making cash flow the much more important consideration.
Analysts expect Nvidia to report $183 billion in free cash flow this calendar year and $317 billion in 2027. And since Nvidia outsources chip fabrication work to partners like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, it doesn’t have to reinvest much of that profit back into the business, says Kim Forrest, chief investment officer at Bokeh Capital Partners.
So, yes, Nvidia’s repurchase authorization is the largest ever by a U.S. company in absolute terms, ahead of Apple’s $110 billion program announced in 2024. But relative to the cash Nvidia is printing, the $150 billion buyback isn’t all that surprising. The reduction in shares from the buyback would add just 8 cents to UBS’s 2027 earnings-per-share estimate for Nvidia, according to a report Monday.
Other mega-cap tech companies don’t have the same flexibility. Meta, Alphabet, Amazon.com, and SpaceX are all headed for negative free cash flows next year, in part because of the money they are spending on Nvidia chips. Their bet is that AI unleashes massive profits in the 2030s.
In the meantime, Nvidia’s buyback allows investors to effectively get future cash flows from these AI hyperscalers paid up front, Forrest adds. Her firm’s strategy holds Nvidia stock.
For Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, meanwhile, the repurchase authorization is a signal to investors that he believes the stock is undervalued.
Nvidia rose 1.7% to $228.86 on Monday, and the stock is up 23% in 2026. But shares trade at 17 times projected earnings over the next 12 months, down from 25 times at the start of the year. The falling valuation is the main reason Nvidia was a Barron’s stock pick in May.
Buying back stock at today’s price “is an unusual opportunity for the company,” explains JoAnne Feeney, a portfolio manager at Advisors Capital Management, which holds Nvidia in multiple strategies.
If Nvidia and Huang are correct that the stock doesn’t reflect the scale of the AI infrastructure boom, Wall Street can expect more and potentially bigger buybacks in the years ahead.