金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，8月工业企业利润增速进一步回落至4.2%，营收同步放缓，基数压力开始显现，国企利润承压，外资和私营企业边际改善，库存继续走高。8月工业“量-价”动能同步改善，盈利率保持稳定，但库存继续累积、应收账款回收期延长，企业资金周转压力仍存。行业层面，8月上游利润维持高增但边际放缓，中游利润增速由负转正，下游利润增速转负，电子、有色冶炼、化纤等高景气行业延续较快增长，汽车和装备制造边际修复，而多数消费制造业仍偏弱。向后看，考虑到8月和9月是工企利润的高基数压力的集中显现期间，四季度工业企业利润面临的高基数压力有望逐步消退，但PPI走势仍是盈利修复主要的不确定性来源。后续政策端建议关注财政资金加快落地对项目需求的改善效果、地产旺季销售对家电家具和建材等行业盈利的支撑，以及中美经贸预期趋稳对出口订单和企业投资信心的影响。
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