大摩邢自强:全球宏观处于非常重要的拐点时刻,人民币汇率年底或达6.65

格隆汇
Sep 29
摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强在闭门会中表示,现在全球宏观处于一个非常重要的拐点时刻。美国现在面临政策困局:一是财政深陷路径依赖,二是货币遭遇了通胀粘性,三是科技监管被地缘政治所裹挟。 他进一步警示,美伊相持不下的背景下,柴油其实是更致命的隐患;全球海运方面的柴油市场,每天缺失接近150万桶,占到了正常运量的1/5;这带来了历史罕见的,柴油对原油的价差达到了破纪录的100美元一桶,柴油的名义现货价格会突破200美元一桶。能源端的持续高压,特别是柴油极大的隐患,导致全球的高利率环境可能维持得比想象中更久。 人民币汇率方面,邢自强表示从去年下半年到现在,人民币存在有序的补涨,而不是大幅度升值;预计今年大概到6.65左右,明年底有可能到兑美元6.6。

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