Global Energy Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
Yesterday

The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1055 ET - European gasoil futures, a benchmark for diesel prices in the region, drop more than 7% in afternoon trading after G-7 countries agreed to release 100 million barrels of crude oil and diesel from their emergency stocks. "We will implement our commitments with a coordinated release through the IEA of 100 million barrels to begin immediately over four months, including a frontloaded substantial diesel release within the first 20 days by G-7 members and partners," they said in a statement. In afternoon trading, gasoil futures are down 7.3% to $1,342.25 a metric ton. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

1003 ET - Natural gas is down 0.3%, retreating under the $3 per-mmBtu mark after the EIA reported that in July, U.S. natural gas production reached a record high. The agency says that July production landed at 137 billion cubic feet a day, continuing the gradual and stable run-up in natural gas production seen since 2010. This new record replaces the record set after 5 months of new record-highs in 2025, says the EIA. Mild weather has been a factor pressing on natural gas futures today, with electrical power demand seen as limited. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0947 ET - Crude oil futures are sliding as more barrels of oil move through the Strait of Hormuz, although the risk of new military incursions remains strong. "The underlying picture remains fragmented," says Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank in a note. On the one hand, Saudi Arabian crude oil exports picked up in late September, but on the other is the present threat of further U.S. strikes on Middle Eastern infrastructure. "The U.S. decision to send another carrier group towards the region underlines why improving flows have yet to remove the market's risk premium," says Hansen. WTI crude is down 4% to $89.22 a barrel, while Brent crude falls 2.7% to $99.56 a barrel. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0846 ET - Centrica could deliver a 15% EPS compound annual growth rate through to 2030 and return 25% of its current market capitalization in dividends over the period, JP Morgan analysts write. "We believe the market has over-reacted to the earnings downgrades, which we see as mostly driven by non-recurrent factors," they say, noting that the stock is 30% below April highs. They add that the British Gas owner has historically outperformed peers in bad debt collections, which should mean that these charges are recovered by price-cap allowances. JP Morgan has an overweight rating on the stock and 227 pence target price. Shares are up 1% at 148.75 pence, but 12% lower over the year to date. (ian.walker@wsj.com)

0825 ET - While the jump in eurozone inflation is still mainly driven by energy prices, broader inflationary pressures mount with energy prices set to stay elevated, ING's Bert Colijn says in a note. Inflation was 3.8% in September, the highest since 2023. Despite oil prices remaining somewhat below peaks in 2022 and this spring, Euro 95 petrol prices have reached an all-time high, weighing significantly on the inflation basket, he says. Now with food inflation ticking higher to 1.4% from 1.1% in August, and core inflation rising to 2.5% from 2.4%, there seems to signs of increased pass-through to other inflation categories, albeit this is very preliminary, Colijn says. The ECB still has work to do, he adds. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

0805 ET - Vestas's announced orders for the third quarter are below expectations, but the order outlook in key regions including Germany and the U.S. remains positive, Citi analysts Martin Wilkie and Avinash Mundhra write. Higher costs on the He Dreiht wind farm project probably means that margins at the power solutions unit don't repeat the high seen in the second quarter, Citi says. However, it expects onshore margins to stay high and for annual guidance to be retained. The bank doesn't expect an incremental buyback to be announced with the third-quarter results. "With the order momentum into 2027 likely remaining positive, and margins set to improve further into next year, we retain our buy rating." Citi has a 260 Danish kroner target price on the stock. Shares rise 3.3% to 196 kroner. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

0619 ET - Oil prices extend losses, with front-month Brent crude futures falling back below $100 a barrel after media reports of talks on potential diesel stock releases. In afternoon European trading, the global oil benchmark is down 2.6% to $99.62 a barrel, while WTI drops 3.9% to $89.28 a barrel. European gasoil futures--a benchmark for diesel prices in the region--fall 5% to $1,377.50 a metric ton. The prospect of a U.S. diesel export ban is hanging over the market, with investors watching closely for any EU response. While a ban could replenish U.S. diesel stocks and lower domestic prices in the short term, it could also reduce incentives to process crude, tightening U.S. gasoline supply and pushing pump prices higher, analysts say. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0523 ET - European chip stocks jump following a report saying that Samsung Electronics is increasing prices for its memory chips. Samsung is quoting prices around $4 per gigabit in negotiations with customers of its HBM4 memory chips--three times ahead of its current rates, according to a report in South Korean financial daily MK. Shares in European suppliers of Samsung jumped as AI-related stocks on the continent rise more broadly. ASML, Europe's most valuable company, increases 2.2%, while ASM International gains 4.7%. Analog chip makers Infineon and STMicroelectronics gain 6% and 3.3%, respectively. Stocks linked to the AI buildout also trade higher, with Siemens Energy up 2.6% while Prysmian adds 4%.(josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)

0349 ET - Gold prices tick higher as markets scale back expectations for imminent interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. "A drop in U.S. Treasury yields overnight along with more cautious commentary from Fed officials is helping to support gold while PCE inflation released earlier in the week came in below expectations for August," says Soojin Kim from MUFG. The probability of another 25-basis-point hike at the FOMC's October meeting has fallen to 28%, from around 70% a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. The nonfarm payrolls report due later Friday is expected to be the next major catalyst for gold prices. In early European trading, New York gold futures are up 0.3% to $4,212.80 a troy ounce. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0340 ET - Oil prices ease on signs that Gulf crude exports are recovering, although tensions in the region remain elevated amid concerns over further military action and attacks on shipping. In early European trading, front-month Brent crude for December is down 1% at $101.26 a barrel, while WTI futures slide 1.8% to $91.24 a barrel. According to The Wall Street Journal, the Pentagon is sending a third aircraft-carrier strike group and additional Marine Corps ships to the Middle East as President Trump considers renewing strikes on Iran after the midterm elections. Meanwhile, physical prices remain elevated as the market worries the U.S. might soon impose a ban on diesel exports. "Tight distillate markets, reduced refined-product availability and uncertainty around Middle East shipping continue to support prices, but any evidence of stronger supply flows can quickly trigger profit-taking," says Naeem Aslam from Zaye Capital Markets. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0238 ET - BofA Securities turns bullish on BHP, citing an improved outlook for copper prices. It raises its share-price target on BHP to 68 Australian dollars from A$65 and upgrades the stock to buy from neutral. That follows a 20% lift in its long-term copper price forecast to US$13,577/metric ton. BofA views a site visit to BHP's Australian copper operations in November as a key catalyst. "We expect the site visit to give the market greater confidence in the ramp-up of mined volumes," it says. Shares ended up 1.6% at A$61.21.

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